Warm and Summer-like Temperatures Through the Next 10 Days

Well above normal temperatures are on the way for all of the Midwest this week and into next week as the jet stream lifts north into Canada for much of the next two weeks. A small cold pocket of air will rotate on through parts of the western Great Lakes on Thursday, but will be short lived as winds kick over to a more southerly direction yet again on Friday.

Memorial Day Weekend will be nice across all of the Midwest, temperature-wise with highs in the 80s for much of the area. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire area on Sunday and Monday as a disturbance passes through, stay tuned for severe weather updates for the Memorial weekend.

On the right is a snapshot of 850mb temperatures Memorial Day morning. It is a good example of the general pattern that will shape the Midwest over the next couple weeks...A strong area of high pressure to the east allowing for a southerly wind around the clockwise rotation of a high pressure. This wind direction will usher in warm Gulf air as a continuous fetch of wind will set up from the Gulf all the way into southern Canada. A summer pattern indeed.

Severe Weather Threat Rapidly Increasing Tonight

A brand new severe thunderstorm watch has just been posted for much of Iowa and Northern Illinois. Strong to severe clusters of thunderstorms are developing behind a strong warm front and an area of strong convergence. With a hot and humid air mass in place, the atmosphere is primed for further development this evening and into the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 11:00pm CDT.

Below are the current CAPE values, basically a general telling of the amount of energy a T-storm has to work with at the given time. It can be increased by surface warming and environmental factors.

Below is current (5:00CDT) Bulk-Richardson number across the Midwest, a basic composite value for severe weather.

Below is the Craven-Brooks severe weather composite value.
It is the product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as "deep layer shear") accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.

Low Pressure System to Pose Severe Weather Threat

The severe threat will continue late afternoon through the overnight hours and a slow moving are of low pressure passes through. Strong Gulf moisture and southerly winds are creating ideal conditions of thunderstorm development. Once the cold front passes, the threat will rapidly diminish from west to east tonight and into Tuesday. Behind the cold front temperatures will run 10-20 degrees below average, this weather will last into the weekend before we see moderating temperatures yet again.

Summer Weather on the Way for Many!

After a prolonged area of low pressure separate from the jet stream controlled the cool and active weather for the eastern half of the country, called a cut off low, a change is on the way. Temperatures will run above average by the middle of the next week, if not earlier. The jet stream will bump north allowing for warm southern air to filter in all week. An area of low pressure will develop and sift out of the Rockies and push towards the Midwest. Exactly where the track of the system falls will be a major factor for the weather in the Midwest next week.

The map on the above is showing the current model consensus of where this system will be near on Thursday.
The warm sector (to the east of the
cold front and to the south of the
warm front) will see highs in the 70s and 80s area wide. This will likely be the first 80 for many in the Midwest. With dew points on the rise and ample surface heating, the atmosphere will become prime for severe weather, with CAPE values approaching 3000 J/KG from Wisconsin on south. A severe weather outbreak is certainly possible on Thursday in the warm sector and ahead of the cold front. We will have to see just where and when this system sets up. The 00z GFS (below) is firing up some thunderstorms for Thursday evening along the cold front. While the front will not bring much in the way of colder air, it will create necessary lift and convergence to develop strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rains. Back to the temperatures, the chart above is forecasted high temperatures for late next week off the 00z GFS model run. Another temperature map is attached below coming off the European weather model, showing a major range of temperature across the Midwest. The barrier between warm and cool with depend solely on the track of the system mentioned above, either way warmer weather and a kick start to severe weather is on the way for the first full week of May.

Severe Weather Threat Shifts East, More Cool Weather Ahead

After a day that brought over 50 tornadoes, another busy day in the severe weather world is beginning to ramp up yet again. Much of the activity will strike Alabama, Mississippi and North Carolina, where vertical wind shear will be greatest. However, there is a slight risk of severe weather from Michigan to Ohio on south. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. Points further west will continue to see scattered showers.

MORE COLD ON THE WAY:
Here is the 6-10 day temperatures departure across continental United States.
This has been a familiar map this winter, showing below normal temperatures for much of the Midwest while the warm air is suppressed to the south. The jet stream will surge across the country creating a strong barrier from warm to cold.

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK, Midwest avoids the worst of the action

A large line of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing through the Midwest. The main threats will be damaging winds as the line continues to race to the Northeast. A few embedded tornadoes are possible ahead of the line, called gustnadoes. The horizontal shear in the winds can cause rapid spin-ups and cause a quick damaging tornado, stay safe as the line passes through your neighborhood. The line will weaken as it pushes into more stable air.
Meanwhile, a major tornado outbreak is getting ready to break out further south. A HIGH risk of tornadoes is now in effect for the areas in pink below:

When Will Winter Let up and Toss in the Cards?

Signs are pointing to well below normal temperatures during the 5-11 day period, as the jet stream dips well south allowing for the pouring of cold Canadian air. Some computer models are developing a storm system 8-10 days out with a cold (possibly snow) sector on the back side. We will wait and see how this plays out in the coming days.

Another Major Winter Storm, Warmer Weather Looming

Yet another winter storm will strike the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night. The accumulating snow will add up in the same areas that were hit with heavy snow numerous times in the past month. Record seasonal snow totals will be set and tacked onto. Winter storm warning and advisories are in effect. Light to moderate snow had already developed in the Dakotas this morning and will continue to expand and push east throughout the afternoon. The snow will becoming heavy and have a major effect on visibilities.

Here are the latest watches/warnings/ advisories from the National Weather Service. A map you might expect for January, dozens of countys are under winter storm warnings where over 6" of snow can be expected. The snow will continue into the night for most and taper off by Thursday morning. Points further south will be affects by a light wintry mix and a cool rain, as the system rides the upper level jet stream to the east northeast. Skies will clear in western areas, and with a fresh snow cover, low temperatures will plummet by morning.

In other news, a warm up is in the cards by next week. The jet stream will bump north and with a strong high pressure in the eastern half of the country, the overall flow will be conducive for warm air advection. Southerly winds begin Sunday and Monday which will set the stage for a warm and abundant sunshine week, for the most part. By this time next week May is right around the corner, so wishful and climatology thinking will say that the "warm" weather should be here to stay, but with this winter in mind, anything is possible. Enjoy the Roller Coaster ride of weather the next several days.

On the right is high temperatures for Sunday off 00z European model run. Other models delay the warm up to Monday. While this model may have slightly over done the warmth on northern fringes, well above temperatures are on the way early next week.

Severe Weather Expected Later this Afternoon

Severe weather will ramp up in parts of the midwest later this afternoon, as a area of low pressure passes to the west of the threat area. The main severe weather threat will be large hail and maybe damaging winds. The map on the left shows the probability of hail within 50 miles of any point. Severe weather will not effect everyone in these areas, but heavy rain is a near certainty. A widespread 1-3" from Nebraska to Michigan will create flooding problems in low laying areas.
Below is the possible rain totals:

Major Winter Storm Thursday and Friday

Another major winter storm will strike much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Thursday into Friday. Heavy snow will develop Thursday afternoon and last through Friday. As the storm intensifies Friday, it will have the likelihood to drop over a foot of snow near Lake Superior.
Further south, severe weather is ramping up as the SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather.

More Snow Expected Thursday for the Same Areas

Yet another storm is on the way for just about the sames areas who saw accumulating snow about a week ago. An area of low pressure will pass through the Midwest on Thursday. Areas further south will see a wintry mix or just plain old rain. There will be a warm side to the system as a warm front moves through places such as Illinois or Indiana. Even further south severe weather is expected to break out, see map below. Warmer weather arrives by the end of the weekend, which will be the first 60 for many areas!

Major Warm Up on Tap Next Week

Early next week has the potential to bring some of the warmest air of the season. With high pressure in the eastern part of the country and an area of low pressure passing through the Dakotas, strong warm air advection will bring Gulf air northward.
On the left you will see a map of 850mb temps for next Monday of the latest 18z GFS model run. It is showing widespread 10-15C temps, which translates to 60s/70s for at least the southern half of the Midwest, depending on where the front sets up. Stay tuned for updates on this incoming Spring.

Spring Outlook and Spring Flood Threat

NOAA has released their annual Spring outlook for 2014. Believe it or not, we are now officially in the season of Spring! While the weather may not agree with the calender, warmer temperatures will eventually greet you outside. However, model trends and analog years point to a cool spring, as seen on the left.  Many factors are in play for the persistent cold, but significant snow cover and oscillating jet stream are two driving forces to the unwanted below normal temperatures.

The map on the right shows the flood risk over the next three months. The snow cover and frozen ground will cause problems with rain run off. Many areas in the Midwest are in the "moderate" risk area for flooding and should consider preparations to those that reside in a flood prone area. Otherwise, it will be a wait and see scenario and will depend on how quickly it warms up and/or where and if heavy rains occur in these areas. In other news, There are some signs of a warm up in 8-10 days on a few models! Something to watch for...

For the sake of Spring optimism, here is a 850mb temperature forecast of the 12z GFS ran this morning for 2 weeks from now. It is showing a warm Spring day and pattern. Cold air suppressed well north and a strong area of high pressure in the east. This pattern leads to a long fetch of warm air from the Gulf to Canada leading to widespread 60s/70s/80s. While this exact situation likely will not happen, it is showing up more and more on the models as this stubborn pattern is attempting to switch over.

Briefly discussing the U.S drought forecast, we see much of this country's dry conditions will reside in the desert southwest.  The CPC is predicting a drought removal for nearly all of the Midwest, after several years, thanks to an above normal winter in terms of precipitation.









Thanks to www.noaa.gov for the well done maps!

Major March Winter Storm Tuesday

A major March winter storm will slowly push through the Midwest on Tuesday. Snow will begin to overspread parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley later Monday night and last through Tuesday. A foot of snow is not out of the question for areas around Duluth that usually see leeside downsloping (see red area). Otherwise, a wide area (for March) of accumulating snow from the Dakotas to the UP of Michigan. Areas further south will see mainly rain, with some mixing on the back side as cold air is ushered in.

This system will emerge out of the Rockies and deepen to a healthy 992mb. Then face upper atmospheric dynamic problems and quickly weaken back to a minimal 1000mb area of low pressure. However, the area of precipitation will continue in Minnesota, but will weaken with the storm. The real question comes in to yet another strengthening in Wisconsin, which will have a major impact on how much snow will fall in northern Wisconsin. This is not a standard winter storm and is ever-changing in the models. As always, the latest snow model can be found HERE!

Light to Moderate Snow Tonight with Associated with an Alberta Clipper-like System

A weak system will develop tonight and fall apart just as fast tomorrow morning. In the height of this disturbance a general area of 2-4" will fall with up to 5" in some spots and only an 1" around the heaviest band of snow. Most of the snow will fall overnight, making for a dicey commute for the morning in some spots, while other areas will not see a flake.
Areas that see clear skies will see the temperature drop like a rock, while the snow will act as a blanket to keep the atmosphere warm.

Latest Computer Model Projections

Heavy March Snow on the Way, Anyone Surprised?

A major snow event is on tap for Sunday into Monday. This system will dump rain, snow and ice from coast to coast and effect the Midwest in a big, snowy way Sunday. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to overspread an arctic air mass already in place, snow will break out late Saturday night and continue well into Sunday. The heaviest axis of snow will stretch from central Nebraska to the New Jersey area, where up to a foot of snow is possible in areas on the east coast. Points further south will deal with a wintry mix that will limits snow accumulations.

On the right is a map of the current NWS watches, warnings and advisories. As you can see this storm will effect more that half of the country over the next few days. Winter storm warnings currently in place for 21 states on this, the first day of meteorological Spring, with winter storm watches kicking over the warning for the east coast late today or tomorrow. Notice the wind chill warnings in the Northern Plains, as yet another arctic blast is on the way after this system rolls though Sunday night.

Accumulating Snow Friday From Iowa to Michigan

Light to Moderate snow has been developing all morning and will begin to accumulate across parts of the Midwest by the afternoon. I wide swath of 1-3" can be expected for most places. Up to 4", maybe an isolated 5" amount in Northeast Wisconsin where the strongest convergence will take place. More snow can be expected for point south on Saturday and a much larger system for Sunday and Monday. An area of 6"+ is possible with that system so stay tuned!

More Extreme Cold on the Way

More cold expected for tonight and tomorrow night.  On the left is the GFS computer model for low temperatures Wednesday morning. Notice the widespread temps below -10!

On the bottom is the projected windchills for tomorrow morning off the GFS model as well. Wind chill advisories are already posted for much of the Midwest.

Major Winter Storm and Severe Weather on the Way Thursday

Very Heavy snow on the way for parts of the Midwest on Thursday as a rapidly intensifying storm system moves northeast into the area. This system will be on the verge of bombogenesis, dropping ~20mb in a 24 hours time period. Confidence is on the rise as much of the major computer models are forecasting this solution. The area with the highest uncertainty falls in central Iowa to Green Bay, as mixing and how rapidly the cold air wraps around will play a major role in total snowfall, right now 1-3" looks like a safe bet.

Greatest severe threat has shifted slightly to the south. On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

*Added in an over inch of rain area.

No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.

Complex, Major Cross Country Storm Winter Storm Thursday into Friday

A major winter storm will strike the Midwest and much of the country Thursday, effecting over 150 million people by the time Friday rolls around. This system will bring everything from warm to cold temperatures, from heavy snow to flooding rains to severe weather.  It will prove to be a text book Spring-like area of low pressure. Models are still trying to pin down the track (which will play the largest role in who sees what). On the left you see a map of anticipated weather phenomena for Thursday. Heavy snow in Wisconsin, and severe weather south, a mix in between.

On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.