Severe Weather Likely This Week

A warm and stormy week is in store for much of the midwest this week. The storms will really get going on Tuesday. The storm is emerging from the Rockies right now and will rapidly develop tonight and tomorrow. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the highest threat. The storm will then progress north east into Canada and the severe threat will shift East on Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.

Thursday Night Snow

Winter is not quite over, just yet. The widespread rain will change over to a mix of rain and snow overnight. Wisconsin areas will see the most snow, with up to 4 inches possible. Areas to the south will see a brief mix, but nothing that should affect travel. The snow will not stick around long, but may fall heavily during overnight hours.

Two Rounds of Heavy Rain

Two rounds of heavy rain will affect the Midwest over the next few days. A storm system will dive south from Canada overnight and spread rain into the upper Midwest and Great Plains, especially in Minnesota. Up to an inch of rain can be expected. A flood threat does exists in the arrowhead of Minnesota due to the snow storm Sunday night that dumped up to 11". The system will then rapidly continue into Canada and the rain should be down by Wednesday night, then we look ahead to Thursday stronger low pressure.

The next storm will come out of the Rockies on Thursday morning, rain will then develop Thursday afternoon. The system will rapidly intensify as it move towards the east and eventually the midwest. Heavy rain will fall across a large area, but up to 2" is possible in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinios. We do need to watch for the chance up snow on the northern side of the storm. If enough cold air can wrap in, an accumulating snow is possible Thursday night. stay tuned.

Heavy Snow Sunday Night

From the same storm that brought the 100+ tornadoes over the weekend and brought heavy rain and flooding to local areas, also dumped up to 11" of snow in northern Minnesota. Here is a radar estimated map of the total snow fall. It did a good job correlating to ground measurements. Some more snow or a mix MAY hit the upper Midwest on Thursday, stay tuned for that! here are some of the higher snow amounts:



11.00" CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0817 AM
11.00" 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 0601 AM
11.00" 4 N CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0529 AM
10.00" TOGO MN ITASCA 0518 AM
9.40" KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS 0700 AM
8.00" BIGFORK MN ITASCA 0604 AM
8.00" COOK MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
7.50" WIRT MN ITASCA 0730 AM
6.50" DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0922 AM
6.00" RAY MN KOOCHICHING 0405 AM

MAJOR Severe Weather Outbreak the Weekend

It is looking very likely that the midwest and great plains will see major severe weather, with the likelihood of strong long track tornado in Kansas and Oklahoma. Many of the tornado may be wedge tornado, which can stay on the ground for an hour or more and be a half mile to mile wide. As a now saturday looks to be the worst of the two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put a "high" for severe weather on saturday. They use the "high" risk about 5 times a year. Last time the high risk was included in a day 2 outlook there were over 90 tornado reports. This truely could be a historic April 14th, especially with the highest risk area in the most populated section of Kansas and Oklahoma.
The closed low then progresses up into the upper Mississippi River valley and brings warm moist air along with it. The severe risk will shift into MN, IA, IL, and WI. large hail and damaging winds appear to be the largest threat here. The SPC has a slight risk for severe weather, mostly because its 3 days out. I would expect this to become a moderate risk as confidence grows. A moderate risk is very uncommon for these areas, maybe 3-4 times a year.
What to expect:
~3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms in much of the midwest
~2 rounds of strong thunderstorms with sunday afternoon being the highest risk time period
~over an inch of rain, the 3 day forecast is included in the picture above

Yet Another Deep Freeze in the Midwest

Another artic high pressure will drift southeast into the midwest and mid atlantic tonight. Be sure to cover or bring in tender plants. Besides this, weather will continue to be quiet with just a passing shower or light thunderstorm in the next week.

Cold Night in Eastern Areas

It will be a harsh freeze for many in the eastern midwest. Freeze warnings are up for hundreds of counties. Areas in the west will not fall below freezing due to the clouds acting as a blanket for warm air.

Quiet Weather Week Ahead

More of the same, quiet weather. We have not been able to talk much about weather lately, simply because of the fact that it has been so calm with no major storms. This will continue into the weekend. Temperature will be about 5-10 degrees above average in most places. In the shaded area scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the week, otherwise quiet everywhere else into the weekend. A high pressure system will drift into the upper midwest which will lead to ample sunshine and clear nights. The cloudless nights will allow warm air to rise up into space and cool the surface. Many areas will see below freezing temperatures over the next few days, so be sure to bring those plants in if you live in these areas. Monitor your local forecasts, OR Comment below with your city, and someone will be sure to give you a personal forecast!

Quick Hitting Spring Snow

Before the massive warm up late this weekend, a quick hitting snow will fall in the upper great lakes. Nothing more than a few inches will fall, but it will bring a taste of reality, at least for a night.
Southerly winds will pump more warm air on sunday and monday. A cold front will then progress through the midwest and could spawn strong thunderstorms on monday before more cold air. It will be a roller coaster of weather the next 5 days.

Record Breaking Warmth to Continue til Midweek

The historic warm spell will continue till about Wednesday, when a week cold front moves through. Many records were broken, including all time winter high temps and all time March temps in some places.
Some of the records include:

Chicago: 3/14..(81) 3/15.. (81) 3/16..(82) 3/17..(80)

Madison: 3/14..(78) 3/15..(81) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

Minneapolis: 3/10..(66) 3/11..(66) 3/13..(67) 3/14..(73) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

There have been over 1,500 records in the past week, many record highs and record high morning temps and earliest 80 degrees ever in places like Madison. This textbook warmth will continue to break and shatter records til about Wednesday, but the cool down will still leave temps 20-35 degrees above normal. Compared to the 45 degrees above normal in some place.

The Record Breaking Warmth will Continue.

The warm spell that brought record warmth to areas like Green Bay, Minneapolis, and Marquette (Even with 2 feet of snow on the ground!) will continue for the the next week and beyond. Computer models are suggesting that a south wind will be constant for the next 2 weeks and pump warm air up from Texas and the Gulf Coast. Tomorrow looks to be the warmest in much of the midwest with 80s in Iowa and Illinois. It appears we are heading into a more El nino like pattern, and winter may be over. No reason to think otherwise, except for climatology...

Very Warm and Extended Period of Warm Weather

From here on out, winter could basically be over. Temps will run well above normal for the next 10+ The only possible cool down appears to occur around march 21st, but even then it will be modest. The map on the left shows the max temp for the next week. The 70 degree line should be lifted north to include Green Bay and Minneapolis.

Climate Change Computer Simulation

Over the past few weeks I ran a climate simulation using a computer program called EdGcm. It basically lets you change factors that contribute to global warming and project them into the future. The increase of CO2 over the past 50 years has been slowly increasing over the years. Last year it increase by about 1.8ppm (parts per million). In this simulation i used and increase of 2.0ppm over the next 90 years. The video shows the effect of this increase in 2100. Basically, if we do nothing these are the effects we can expect...

better quality video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXsEDbw5cJ0&context=C3384b81ADOEgsToPDskJfRP0etWfI585uNY76bTnJ

Storm Totals and Forecast for Tonight

By City:

Chicago: a slushy inch possible
Milwaukee: 5-7"
Madison: 4-7"
Green Bay: 4-6"
Waterloo: 1-2"
Cedar Rapids: ~1"
Traverse City: 9-12"
Muskegon: 3-6"

Friday's Snow Forecast

A strong low pressure will move through the Midwest tomorrow and tomorrow night. It will bring areas of heavy snow in Wisconsin and Michigan. The storm will produce a dangerous severe weather outbreak tomorrow. Southern Ohio and Kentucky could see the worst of it with a record breaking tornado outbreak possible. Conditions are off the charts, hopefully it does not materialize. With that said some of these thunderstorms may rotate up into the cold air dumping even heavier amounts of snow. There MAY be some areas up to 10" if thundersnow develops.

Leap Day Storm Wrap Up and Friday Storm Update

A widespread 8-16" fell across northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota. Some areas came in with 2 feet of the white stuff, for example Crandon, WI had 24". The storm was also responsible for the tornado outbreak in southern parts of the midwest.
Looking ahead to Friday, a narrow band of moderate snow will likely develop west of the track. At least several inches are likely.

Leap Day Blizzard Snow Map

Not much has changed, except the warmer air is winning in places further south so i cut back on snow totals there, otherwise still looking like a monster storm

Edit 6:14pm: map still looks good

First Snow Map for the Storm of the Year

An all out blizzard will happen Tuesday and Wednesday. Looks to be the storm of the year for the midwest. There will be many areas that reach a foot of snow. Amounts will drop off further south due to a mix of rain and snow. Some icing is possible in southern Wisconsin and SE Minnesota. Look for more updates as this event gets closer.

MAJOR Winter Storm For Midwest This Week

The parade of storms will continue. Look for snow to develop in the Dakotas Tuesday night and progress west throughout Wednesday and drop very heavy snow in many areas. It appears to be the storm of the year so far. The heaviest snow will fall during the afternoon on Wed. and wind down at night. A foot of snow is very likely for many areas, especially southern MN and central/northern WI. Furthermore, there is a chance of ice accumulation in the pink area, but many conditions still need to come together for that to happen. Nevertheless, the pink area will see rain/snow/sleet and will be a mess for travel. Stay tuned for this latest winter storm!

Snow Expected for late This Weekend

As the last snowstorm exits into Canada, the next one is right behind it. It will be the second storm in a parade of 4 storms. A strong one for the middle of the week, then a weaker one for late next week. With that said, this weekend's storm will be mostly if not all a snow maker. A general 3-6" can be expected in many areas in the northern plains with up to 7 fluffy inches in northern North Dakota. Be sure to keep it here for updates on the storms for the coming week!