Crippling Blizzard Thursday

A crippling blizzard is going to strike the Midwest Wed/Thur. Central Iowa up to Green Bay looks to be the hardest hit. MANY areas will see a foot of more of snow, with winds gusting over 40mph. Blowing and drift will be a problem and some travel may be impossible. Schools will close Thursday and drifts to 4 feet can be expected. Models are finally coming together on the track, so the snow map was made with a good amount of confidence. We will narrow down amounts and the storm gets closer. Expect blizzard warnings to go in effect starting Wed night.

Winter Storm Update

Still on track, the first major winter storm will begin to impact the Midwest Wednesday night and last through Thursday. The snow forecast is based on the most likely track (the middle black line). The red cone is the range of track computer models are showing. If the track shifts, the heavy snow band will also shift. With that in mind, it does look likely that someone will get 10-14". It is just impossible to pin down the heavy snow band with a variance in computer models. After the storm passes, cold air will crash in and lead for a cold weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

MAJOR WINTER STORM WED/THUR

A major winter storm will strike the Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday. It will likely lead to blizzard warnings in some areas. The models do still have some differences in the track of the system. The map in the left show the MOST LIKELY scenario and should be used a a reference. With that said, someone will get over a foot of snow and the dark blue will possibly see 6-12" if the track holds. With the mild winter last year, this will likely shape up as the largest winter storm in almost 2 years. You are going to want to stay tuned for updates throughout the week!

Major Winter Storm Shaping up for Late Next Week

It is starting to look more and more probable for a winter storm, that will bring a white Christmas for many. Models are starting to come together on the track. The map on the left shows the cone of possible tracks of this system. The most likely track brings it from the Rockies through Missouri to Chicago to central Michigan. Where ever the track ends up, snow should fall heavily about 50-75 miles north of the track, with the possibility of 6"+ in a large area. This is the historic track of strong winter storms in the Midwest. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week, also you can like our Facebook page for more updates! ------->

Sunday Evening Update: Storm still on track, favoring the southern side of the cone. Storm totals will likely top a foot in some areas. STAY TUNED!

Weekend Storm Update

Looks like most of the warm air is going to win out in this system. Mostly rain, for much of the midwest. However, A wintery mix is likely in southern MN and northern WI. Even further north the snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces up to 5" is some spots, maybe 6" in the heavy bands. Freezing rain shouldn't be to much of an issue as the atmosphere is not set up quite right for it. In general, it looks like a wet weekend for many people.

Weekend Storm Jogs a Little North

Not much has changed since the last post. However the storm did jog a touch north, dragging the snow north. Amount still looks to be in that 3-6" range somewhere, we will narrow that down tomorrow. Also, the storm looks to slow down and wrap cold air around, maybe before the precipitation ends, meaning there is a chance for a mix or snow towards the end of the event in Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, somewhat heavy rain will fall south of the track, about 0.5"-1.0" likely in many areas. The warm December continues for many..

Weekend Storm

Another, weaker, storm system looks to impact the area this weekend. Models are showing decent agreement in the track of the system. However they vary on the amount of cold that will work in. The map on the left shows the odds of seeing snow or a mix. The margin of error is about 50-100 miles north or south of the current situation. We will see how this one plays out. The NAO is around -1, meaning the track makes sense. It is just a matter of cold air available. Those interested in possible amounts...models are showing 3-6" is some areas.

Winter Storm Update

Overall, the forecast still looks good. Added to totals in the Minneapolis area due to a deformation zone setting up over that area. The clouds will basically empty themselves over central Minnesota.

Winter Storm Update

Quick update on the snow map tonight. Not to much has changed. It does look like the northern stream will win out this time around. If you miss out on this storm, another one appears to be possible next weekend.

3:10pm update: Snow map still looks good, northern areas of lower Michigan should expect to be on the lower end of the 3-6", maybe more like 2-4".

Winter Storm Sunday

The storm we have been watching for the past week or so has split. Here is the first snow map based on the latest model runs. There is some variance in the models. Some want to develop the southern low pressure more and some want to strengthen the northern piece of energy. Overall the northern low seems to win. We will be watching the area in orange as this area has the potential for snow accumulations.

 Here is an image off the 00z GFS model run, showing the stronger northern low. The darkest green shows the area of heaviest snow. Iowa may see some mix, along with northern IL and southern WI.

It will emerge from the Rocky Mountains as two pieces. Again, the strongest piece appears to move through the northern plains. This will be watched as it is the key to figuring out this storm! stay tuned!

Winter Storm Sunday/Monday

Good evening, before getting into the forecast, realize we are on the very preliminary aspects of forecasting winter storms, 5-6 days out. With it being the first winter storm on the year models usually have some difficulties in forecasts. With that said, models are converging on a solution (see map). However, they vary on intensity and how much snow will fall. some 2-5". and some have a full blown winter storm (6"+) Stay tuned! look for an update late tomorrow evening with a first look at a snowfall map! The energy is still in the Pacific Ocean, so things may change a bit, but tomorrow and friday will help to narrow things down.

Historic Warm Up?

Sunday will be the transition day. A warm front will push north shifting winds in a southerly direction, pumping up much warmer air.

Monday will be the warmest day. Much of the midwest will topple record highs for the day, and many spots will flirt with hitting their all time December highs. After Monday a cold front will move in and bring temps down to seasonable level. We are watching the possibility of a major cool down come next weekend, and a likely pattern change that will bring the full force of winter. Stay tuned!

Snow Map For Tonight

Expect some snow during the evening and overnight hours. 1-2" has fallen in northern Minnesota at this hour.

Transition Thanksgiving, Cold to Come

Enjoy Thanksgiving, not only for the food and family, but likely the warmest day for much of the Midwest til early Spring. Temperature will reach record highs in many areas. Once the cold front moves through winds will shift from the southwest to the north, and usher in a much colder air mass  This transformation will occur during black Friday hours, so don't be surprised if it cools off rapidly as you are out and a bout. The areas in green may see some scattered showers during peak shopping time, as many stores open at 8pm Thursday night. Furthermore, we are watching a storm next week, with snow. Stay tuned over the weekend!

Midwest Winter Forecast!

Here it is, the midwestweather.org winter forecast.
This forecast was done through a process called ensembling. Multiple forecasts were evaluated and average out to make the forecast you see on the left. Earlier this fall many weather outlets were thinking there would be a moderate El nino, which would lead to above average temperatures and below average snow. That forecast will likely prove to be inaccurate because the latest forecast done by NOAA and the CPC is predicting a very weak El nino to no El nino. Overall, it will likely be a somewhat normal onw in the midwest, with areas of cold and above average snow.

The graph on the right show the NAO (north atlantic oscillation). In simple terms, a positive value means quite weather and a negative value mean stormy and cold, for the most part. Since it has been negative for much of the fall, the start of the winter should include such values. This will lead to the worst of the winter to occur in December an January. The large winter storms will likely occur early and then transition to "clipper" systems to end the winter in February and March. These storms usually track on the blue arrow above.

11/25/2012 update: The NAO is negative and forecasted to fall even more negative, look for a stormy December.

11/27/2012

Here is one indicator of a snowy winter possibly ahead of us. The more snow to our north, the colder it will be in the midwest. The snow reflects incoming radiation instead of absorbing. This leads to colder temperature overall.

Here is one model depiction of snowfall through Christmas. The area in brown shows a snow depth of 10" or more. This goes along with the negative NAO and weakening el nino. Many computer models are showing an active start to the month beyond the 5th. We will have to wait and see how the storms pan out, but it is looking like a snowy month.

Warm Thanksgiving Week

The weekend and next week will bring a strong warm up. The jet steam will surge north allowing for strong southerly winds. The warmest day will be Tuesday in the plains and Wednesday in midwest/great lakes. A storm system will then move through on Friday, bringing rain and much colder temperature from Canada. Generally it will be dry so traveling should not be a problem. Maybe some scattered showers on Sunday night into Monday in Wisconsin and Illinois, but nothing much. Stay tuned to midwestweather.org for any updates on the Thanksgiving forecast!

Blizzard Update

Another update on the first real blizzard for the northern plains. There have been many snow totals of over 10" the same can be expected in far northern parts of North Dakota. For the most part the area in the green will be battling a wintery mix before changing over to snow that will accumulate up to a few inches. Another problem with this storm in the strong winds. Although much of the snow will be a heavy wet snow, blowing snow will be a problem. Gusts up to 40mph are likely. This storm will then push east and bring heavy rain to much of the midwest. Keep it here for updates!

Snow Totals (as of 12:50):
Crosby, ND: 15.0 inches

Williston, ND: 12.0 inches

Rapid City, SD: 2.4 inches

Weekend Storm Update

Storm update: quick update tonight. It is going to be an all out blizzard in Montana and northwest North Dakota. Some snow may fall on the back side of the heavy rain Sunday night into Tuesday  See last post for more information

Weekend Storm for Plains and Midwest

A strong storm system will move into the area this weekend. Very heavy snow will break out behind the system on Friday in areas north west of North Dakota, including parts of the state it self. Enough cold air may work in to drop a couple inches in all of the light  blue area, especially in the darker blue. Ahead of the storm temperature will soar 10-20 degrees above average in much of the Midwest. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warm, with Saturday the warmest in most areas. Then Saturday and Sunday will bring heavy rain as the cold front pushes in. Rain totals will approach and maybe exceed an inch in the green area on the map. Be sure to keep it here for updates throughout the week. You can also like our new facebook page: Facebook page

Some Light Snow/Mix for Election Day

As some of you head out to the pole expect some snow and/or a mix. In northern Minnesota most of you will wake up to a fresh dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. The precipitation will then shift south and east into Wisconsin (a swing state...). Will weather affect the pole? With that said don't expect much of an impact on travel as everything will be light (a few bursts of heavier snow/rain are possible). Furthermore, ground temperatures are still well above freezing so the only accumulation will be on grassy areas. Total snow amounts will not be much up to 2" in northern Minnesota and an inch or so in northern Wisconsin. A piece of energy will then dive south and merge up to form a coastal storm for the eastern seaboard. Although latest models have the storm more out to sea, this is something the people are New Jersey and New York were fearful of. Keep it here to Midwest Weather and if anything changes, this post will be updated.

10:51 update: brand new computer models have the northeast storm out to sea, with rain and gusty winds right along the shore. Is this a trend? Or a hiccup in the model? We will know for sure probably by tomorrow and model come together on this complex storm system.