Very Warm Sunday in Midwest

Sunday will be a very warm day for many, likely the warmest of the year. Highs will be in the mid 90s throughout much of the midwest (see map). The warm up is due to a weakening storm system that will eventually become occluded on Sunday. As noted in the map on the left, there will be a very sharp cut off from the hot weather, to the comfortable temps in the 70s. It depends on where this front sets up during the afternoon on sunday as to who will be in the 90s and who will not. Keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Severe Weather Outbreak Later Today/Night

A severe weather outbreak should get going in the next few hours. Conditions are highly favorable for large tornados (see map) and damaging winds, with a smaller hail threat. The orange outline shows the highest risk of severe weather, especially damaging winds. The tornado outline shows the highest probability of a tornado, the damaging wind threat is also prevalent here.

A strong upper level jet will continue to follow a cold front behind a strengthening surface cyclone. A line of storms will develop in western wisconsin and central Iowa, and push east throughout the later afternoon and evening. While this may help the harsh drought in some areas, these storms can be dangerous and local forecasts and warnings should be monitored. Keep it here to midwest weather talk



EDIT 7:55 central time... severe threat not as high, but still prevalent:

Severe Weather/ Heavy Rain in Midwest

A slow moving storm system currently in the Upper Plains will be a strong weather maker in the midwest the week. As a strong upper level wind strengthens today, it will cause a fairly high dose of severe weather, especially in North Dakota. The primary threat being large hail, and gusty winds. The storm will then continue to slowly move east and drag cold air with it. The cold air will be along a front that will interact with warm air rushing north to cause severe weather in the midwest (see map). Again large hail is the main threat.

Along with the severe weather threat comes very heavy rain. A general 1-3" can be expected in the outlined area with some spot easily reaching 4" depending in the individual thunderstorm tracks. Be prepared if you live in a flood pron area. And on Thursday the severe weather shifts east again. Conditions will not be as favorable for the heavy rain, but large hail seems likely again. Stay tuned for updates and be sure to monitor the latest watches and warnings throughout the week!

Severe Thunderstorms Today, Cooler Tomorrow

The front that caused the severe weather and thunderstorms in the midwest Sunday, will continue to bring in cooler air overnight. Monday will be an average May day,weatherwise, for all of the midwest. The atmosphere will become stabilized as the front moves through, so a couple dry days can be expected, before a warm front moves through midweek. Along with the warmth later this week the chance of thunderstorms is also prevalent. It looks like we are in this pattern for the foreseeable future...A warm up for several days, then thunderstorms along a cold front, then a cooler stretch after, an then another warm up as you may have guessed. Stay tuned to midwest weather talk for severe weather chance in the coming days.

"Colder" Week Ahead for the Midwest

Currently a cold front is pushing through the Midwest. It is developing scattered thunderstorms along the front, some severe. After the front moves through winds will shift to the north and usher in cooler air from Canada. Do not expect a cold today tomorrow, but rather an average May day with ample sunshine throughout the Midwest as high pressure moves in. Be sure to stay tuned for updates and enjoy the weather over the next several days.

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Severe Weather Possible Today

Some strong thunderstorms will likely develop later today and tonight. Warm moist air will rush north providing instability is a small area of the midwest. The primary threat it large hail, and strong winds. The threat of a tornado is small, but still prevalent. Look at the map for the chance in your backyard. Be sure to check back for updates stay safe.

Aggressive Warm Up Next Week

A large and lengthy warm up is shaping up for next week in the midwest. Temperatures are already moderating this week, but the main slew of warm air will move into the midwest during the middle of next week. Temperature will run 10-20 degrees above average in most places, assuming it is sunny that day.

More Severe Weather on Wednesday

There have been over 70 severe weather reports already today, and the peak has yet to come. Tomorrow the severe threat will shift a little to east, and shift even more to the east thursday. A line of thunderstorms will likely develop along a warm front tomorrow in the northern Iowa areas and progress east throughout the day. The main threat will still be damaging winds and large hail.

Severe Weather Likely This Week

A warm and stormy week is in store for much of the midwest this week. The storms will really get going on Tuesday. The storm is emerging from the Rockies right now and will rapidly develop tonight and tomorrow. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the highest threat. The storm will then progress north east into Canada and the severe threat will shift East on Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.

Thursday Night Snow

Winter is not quite over, just yet. The widespread rain will change over to a mix of rain and snow overnight. Wisconsin areas will see the most snow, with up to 4 inches possible. Areas to the south will see a brief mix, but nothing that should affect travel. The snow will not stick around long, but may fall heavily during overnight hours.

Two Rounds of Heavy Rain

Two rounds of heavy rain will affect the Midwest over the next few days. A storm system will dive south from Canada overnight and spread rain into the upper Midwest and Great Plains, especially in Minnesota. Up to an inch of rain can be expected. A flood threat does exists in the arrowhead of Minnesota due to the snow storm Sunday night that dumped up to 11". The system will then rapidly continue into Canada and the rain should be down by Wednesday night, then we look ahead to Thursday stronger low pressure.

The next storm will come out of the Rockies on Thursday morning, rain will then develop Thursday afternoon. The system will rapidly intensify as it move towards the east and eventually the midwest. Heavy rain will fall across a large area, but up to 2" is possible in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinios. We do need to watch for the chance up snow on the northern side of the storm. If enough cold air can wrap in, an accumulating snow is possible Thursday night. stay tuned.

Heavy Snow Sunday Night

From the same storm that brought the 100+ tornadoes over the weekend and brought heavy rain and flooding to local areas, also dumped up to 11" of snow in northern Minnesota. Here is a radar estimated map of the total snow fall. It did a good job correlating to ground measurements. Some more snow or a mix MAY hit the upper Midwest on Thursday, stay tuned for that! here are some of the higher snow amounts:



11.00" CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0817 AM
11.00" 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 0601 AM
11.00" 4 N CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0529 AM
10.00" TOGO MN ITASCA 0518 AM
9.40" KABETOGAMA MN ST. LOUIS 0700 AM
8.00" BIGFORK MN ITASCA 0604 AM
8.00" COOK MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
7.50" WIRT MN ITASCA 0730 AM
6.50" DIXON LAKE MN ITASCA 0922 AM
6.00" RAY MN KOOCHICHING 0405 AM

MAJOR Severe Weather Outbreak the Weekend

It is looking very likely that the midwest and great plains will see major severe weather, with the likelihood of strong long track tornado in Kansas and Oklahoma. Many of the tornado may be wedge tornado, which can stay on the ground for an hour or more and be a half mile to mile wide. As a now saturday looks to be the worst of the two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put a "high" for severe weather on saturday. They use the "high" risk about 5 times a year. Last time the high risk was included in a day 2 outlook there were over 90 tornado reports. This truely could be a historic April 14th, especially with the highest risk area in the most populated section of Kansas and Oklahoma.
The closed low then progresses up into the upper Mississippi River valley and brings warm moist air along with it. The severe risk will shift into MN, IA, IL, and WI. large hail and damaging winds appear to be the largest threat here. The SPC has a slight risk for severe weather, mostly because its 3 days out. I would expect this to become a moderate risk as confidence grows. A moderate risk is very uncommon for these areas, maybe 3-4 times a year.
What to expect:
~3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms in much of the midwest
~2 rounds of strong thunderstorms with sunday afternoon being the highest risk time period
~over an inch of rain, the 3 day forecast is included in the picture above

Yet Another Deep Freeze in the Midwest

Another artic high pressure will drift southeast into the midwest and mid atlantic tonight. Be sure to cover or bring in tender plants. Besides this, weather will continue to be quiet with just a passing shower or light thunderstorm in the next week.

Cold Night in Eastern Areas

It will be a harsh freeze for many in the eastern midwest. Freeze warnings are up for hundreds of counties. Areas in the west will not fall below freezing due to the clouds acting as a blanket for warm air.

Quiet Weather Week Ahead

More of the same, quiet weather. We have not been able to talk much about weather lately, simply because of the fact that it has been so calm with no major storms. This will continue into the weekend. Temperature will be about 5-10 degrees above average in most places. In the shaded area scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the week, otherwise quiet everywhere else into the weekend. A high pressure system will drift into the upper midwest which will lead to ample sunshine and clear nights. The cloudless nights will allow warm air to rise up into space and cool the surface. Many areas will see below freezing temperatures over the next few days, so be sure to bring those plants in if you live in these areas. Monitor your local forecasts, OR Comment below with your city, and someone will be sure to give you a personal forecast!

Quick Hitting Spring Snow

Before the massive warm up late this weekend, a quick hitting snow will fall in the upper great lakes. Nothing more than a few inches will fall, but it will bring a taste of reality, at least for a night.
Southerly winds will pump more warm air on sunday and monday. A cold front will then progress through the midwest and could spawn strong thunderstorms on monday before more cold air. It will be a roller coaster of weather the next 5 days.

Record Breaking Warmth to Continue til Midweek

The historic warm spell will continue till about Wednesday, when a week cold front moves through. Many records were broken, including all time winter high temps and all time March temps in some places.
Some of the records include:

Chicago: 3/14..(81) 3/15.. (81) 3/16..(82) 3/17..(80)

Madison: 3/14..(78) 3/15..(81) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

Minneapolis: 3/10..(66) 3/11..(66) 3/13..(67) 3/14..(73) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

There have been over 1,500 records in the past week, many record highs and record high morning temps and earliest 80 degrees ever in places like Madison. This textbook warmth will continue to break and shatter records til about Wednesday, but the cool down will still leave temps 20-35 degrees above normal. Compared to the 45 degrees above normal in some place.

The Record Breaking Warmth will Continue.

The warm spell that brought record warmth to areas like Green Bay, Minneapolis, and Marquette (Even with 2 feet of snow on the ground!) will continue for the the next week and beyond. Computer models are suggesting that a south wind will be constant for the next 2 weeks and pump warm air up from Texas and the Gulf Coast. Tomorrow looks to be the warmest in much of the midwest with 80s in Iowa and Illinois. It appears we are heading into a more El nino like pattern, and winter may be over. No reason to think otherwise, except for climatology...

Very Warm and Extended Period of Warm Weather

From here on out, winter could basically be over. Temps will run well above normal for the next 10+ The only possible cool down appears to occur around march 21st, but even then it will be modest. The map on the left shows the max temp for the next week. The 70 degree line should be lifted north to include Green Bay and Minneapolis.